Jakarta Does Not Need Subway ...
By Yusuf WibisonoNearing the gubernatorial election of Jakarta, the issue of traffic congestion, with an average vehicle speed now under 10 km per hour and the prediction of total gridlock in 2014, is getting the public’s attention again. One of the most important issues here that, unfortunately, not getting much attention is the mass rapid transit (MRT) development, the subway project.
The Impropriety of Subway
Jakarta needs a major policy to break down the congestion while setting a benchmark for other big cities facing similar gridlock in five to 10 years from now, like Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, and Semarang. However, choosing a subway as Jakarta’s main transport of the future requires adequate qualification.
With over 20 million trips a day and vehicle growth of 11 percent a year, it is about time that Jakarta is serious with building MRT. As long as MRT is not built, Jakarta will bear losses each year up to tens of trillions of rupiah due to congestion and it is projected to continue growing up to Rp 65 trillion by 2020. Therefore, the need for MRT in Jakarta is pressing.
MRT is not only subway, but there are other choices, like light rapid transit (LRT), commuter rail system, and bus rapid transit (BRT). However, why does subway become the leading coice? A subway does promise many benefits. As an MRT, a subway is capable to transport 40-100 thousands of people an hour per direction.
Subway development can also be done in parallel by building multilevel tracks so that it will be efficient. Subway development is also a potential to be synergised with the development of other important urban infrastructure, like flood control, sanitation, and clean water.
However, subway also presents problems and the most significant one is massive cost. The cost estimate for subway development is over Rp 1 trillion per km, way above BRT that is only around Rp 10 billion per km. In addition, subway requires top technology, from designing, constructing, to operation and maintenance. Therefore, subway will depend much on imports and foreign workers.
With the expensive development, requires a high demand for the subway to be financially feasible. The demand estimates for short and medium terms are not high enough to justify subway development. The subway will not be able to support cost recovery, thus it can be sure to need permanent government subsidy.
First stage subway development that is only 15 km is financed by a debt from JICA for Rp 15 trillion repayable in 40 years with a 10-year grace period. The burden is shared between central and provincial governments. It can be seen that Japan has a stake whereby the majority of contractors and subway human resources must come from Japan.
By conservative count, the outflow of APBD (Regional Budget) is projected at Rp 651 billion in year one to seven of the project, Rp 85 billion in year eight to 10, Rp 97 billion in year 11 to 17, and Rp 12 billion in year 18 to 40. APBD will also bear the operational subsidy, which in base scenario is projected at Rp 85 billion a year in 2015-2025 or Rp 850 billion for 10 years.
The major deviation on the assumed projections of cash flow from MRT project will burden the APBD. If the next stage of the project, which is 95 km long, is taken into calculation, subway is a real threat to the future sustainability of the budget and public services in Jakarta.
Busway and KRL
The priority and focus of Jakarta transportation policies are to break down the congestion as soon as possible and to minimise loss and increase the economic competitiveness. Busway and KRL should be the focus because the cost of both is much cheaper than subway or LRT (monorail). The busway development for 15 corridors, up to 150 km, that cover the entire Jakarta has the cost equivalent to one kilometre subway.
The north-south subway corridor stage one, estimated to cost Rp 17 trillion, can be used to build Anyer-Panarukan busway lanes! If this Rp 17 trillion is focused on the busway, we will be able to complete 15 corridors soon, add the coupled busses to an adequate number, and other steps.
It is wrong to claim that busway can never be a reliable MRT. With good and professional management, Bogota with seven million population was able to make Bogota TransMilenio into a safe and comfortable MRT with transport capacity of 45 thousand people an hour per direction, close to subway capacity.
At the same time, with the same budget, we will also be able to give full attention to Jabodetabek (Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi) KRL that has proven effective as a commuter train. With an adequate revitalisation, Jabodetabek KRL capacity could potentially be increased from the current 600 thousand passengers a day to 2 million passengers a day.
It is apparent that focussing on busway and KRL will effectively and significantly break down congestion in Jakarta with much cheaper cost, in relatively short period of time, and in an equitable and fair manner. Then, why insist on building a subway? Do not let false prestige or economic interests, or a combination of both, outweighs conscience and reason.
Republika, "Jakarta Tak Perlu Subway", 7 Juni 2012.
http://www.indii.co.id/news_daily_detail.php?id=4010
Labels: Ekonomi Regional
posted by islamic economics from munjul @ Friday, January 04, 2013
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